So after our last posts we keep on running on numbers and today we’ll choose 2012. No, it’s not about the Olympic Games to be celebrated in London but rather about a more complex question: Where do you think Facebook will be in two years time? My answer is: ‘not a clue’. However, and leaving apart crazy futuristic hypotheses I will try to mention some issues that I consider important for Facebook’s evolution.
First of all… What’s Facebook? Is Facebook a fun startup, or a large successful company? Geeks or business people? Is it about connecting or sharing information? Is it just a social network or is it something bigger? In his first interview with TIME, July 17, 2007, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg declared: “What we’re trying to do is just make it really efficient for people to communicate, get information and share information”. From my point of view Facebook seems more like a communications platform that doesn’t know where it is heading and the next couple of years will be crucial for Facebook to shape its identity and redefine its culture, focus, and value proposition.
The next question… Could Facebook’s strong points also be the cause of its problems? I am talking about transparency, too much for some people, and the challenge of trying to manage its confusing privacy settings. The other point I’d like to highlight is its size. It’s too big and crowded. So much so that its own strength, one-size-fits-all, could be also its downfall. More targeted social networking sites will eat into its popularity (Ning allows anyone to create their own free social networking site, based on their interests) so… Does Facebook understand the value proposition it offers to each of these segments? What about the growing base of 35-49-year-olds who are now flocking to social networks?
Thirdly, does Facebook make money? I wasn’t sure about the answer and the thing is that Facebook revenues reached $500 million in 2009, up from $300 million in 2008, according to Fortune editor David Kirkpatrick. Facebook expects revenues to reach $800 million in 2010. As in the case of Google the main source of income is advertising. Just click here in order to meet Facebook’s (soon-to-be) billionaires.
There are a lot of other issues that could be brought to the (discussion) table such as social networking as a way to market your business or Facebook’s constant innovation which becomes a real burden on brands who have a difficult time understanding which tools to use. But (a cutting) to cut a long story short, I think it’s too late for people and companies to abandon their social media plans. They make interaction with consumers easier and (that way) therefore facilitate building a better brand.
The key factor for success is that Facebook should clearly distinguish between pursuing business objectives and meeting user needs and should thus communicate the true intent of its actions. Facebook should really make much more of an effort to understand its own users. But even if they fail to do it and its high valuation shrinks, it will ultimately become just one more site but its survival is certain.
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